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BLACKWATER USA | DAILY BRIEF


Russia

  • Germany says Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalny was “without a doubt” poisoned by Russia’s Novichok nerve agent. The Kremlin is still denying any involvement.

Belarus

  • Belarus’s opposition candidate, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, says dozens of protesters are missing—likely detained—after last weekend’s demonstrations.

China

  • Ethnic Mongolians in China are protesting a new policy making Mandarin curriculum mandatory in schools throughout China. Ethnic minorities like the Mongolians fear Mandarin education will erode their culture.

  • A Forbes article pasted below raises concerns that China’s navy—already the largest in the world—is becoming more capable, with new land-attack cruise missiles and submarine expertise.

Lebanon

  • French president Macron visited Lebanon for the second time in a month, and urged an overhaul of the dysfunctional Lebanese government.

Afghanistan

  • The Afghan government freed almost 200 of the last 400 Taliban prisoners to try to kickstart talks with the Taliban. A spokesman for Pres. Ghani said “work is still underway” to release the remaining 200. The Taliban also released another four government prisoners.

Libya

  • The Italian Foreign Minister and the EU’s foreign policy chief paid a surprise visit to Libya to meet with the GNA’s Fayez al Serraj and urge peace. The Italian Foreign Minister also met with Aguila Saleh, the speaker of the eastern government’s House of Representatives (Saleh has been mooted as a replacement for Khalifa Haftar in the east).

Venezuela

  • Two top Venezuelan opposition leaders are in discussions with Pres. Maduro’s government to rejoin the December parliamentary vote, after their parties initially pledged to boycott the poll. Reuters says their u-turn signals a divide within the opposition—other opposition parties and leaders still plan to sit out the unfair election.

U.S.

  • The U.S. announced it would not join Covax, a WHO-linked international coalition to discover and distribute a COVID-19 vaccine, because of the effort’s affiliation with the WHO.

North Korea

  • Two strong typhoons—Maysak and Haishen—are hurtling towards the Korean Peninsula, and expected to both make landfall before the end of the week. North Korea isn’t in a great place to survive a natural disaster.

Other News

  • French satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo is provocatively republishing its cartoons of the Prophet Mohammad that led to an attack on the journal’s headquarters in 2015, just as the terror trial begins for that attack.

  • Turkey arrested Mahmut Ozden, who’s allegedly a top Islamic State leader in Turkey. Turkish authorities said Ozden was planning an attack in Istanbul.

China Has The World’s Largest Navy. And It’s Getting Better, Pentagon Warns (Forbes)

China has the largest navy in the world. And it’s not just big, but it’s getting better.

“The PRC [People’s Republic of China] has the largest navy in the world, with an overall battle force of approximately 350 ships and submarines including over 130 major surface combatants,” states the U.S. Department of Defense’s 2020 annual report to Congress on Chinese military power. “In comparison, the U.S. Navy’s battle force is approximately 293 ships as of early 2020.”

In itself, that statistic is somewhat misleading: While the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has more warships than the U.S. Navy, the American fleet is ahead in tonnage due to having larger warships, including 11 aircraft carriers that weigh in at 100,000 tons apiece.

But what happens when Chinese naval quantity is paired with technological quality? That prospect alarms Pentagon planners.

The PLAN is a far cry from its Cold War days, when it was a poor cousin to a massive ground army. China’s fixation to forcibly reunify Taiwan with the mainland, and its determination to replace the U.S. as the hegemon of the Western Pacific, had led Beijing to spend vast amounts of time and money to improve the quality of its navy.

China’s navy “is an increasingly modern and flexible force that has focused on replacing previous generations of platforms with limited capabilities in favor of larger, modern multi-role combatants,” the report says. “As of 2019, the PLAN is largely composed of modern multi-role platforms featuring advanced anti-ship, antiair, and anti-submarine weapons and sensors.”

China’s growing fleet of aircraft carriers has garnered the most attention. The PLAN has one decrepit ex-Soviet carrier, a newly commissioned carrier that is the first built in China, a third carrier under construction, and plans to build an additional four or more vessels. Fitted with advanced features like an electromagnetic launch system, a Chinese carrier fleet could provide air cover for an amphibious invasion of Taiwan, or even confront the U.S. Navy in the first carrier versus carriers battles since World War II.

But there’s a lot more to a navy than just carriers: watch U.S. carrier strike groups, and you’ll notice that the flattops are always surrounded by cruisers and destroyers for anti-aircraft and anti-submarine defense. China has been busily building a new generation of sophisticated, heavily armed cruiser, destroyers and corvettes. For example, in December 2019, China launched the sixth Type 055 Renhai-class cruiser. The Renhai fields a large array of anti-ship cruise missiles and anti-aircraft missiles, “along with likely LACMs [land attack cruise missiles] and anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBMs) when those become operational,” the Pentagon noted.

This raises the prospect of a U.S. fleet being overwhelmed by massed salvoes of anti-ship missiles, including deadly new hypersonic weapons that travel faster than Mach 5.

As with Russia’s navy, submarines are a key element of Chinese naval strength. The PLAN is expected to build more diesel-powered and nuclear-powered attack subs. China is also one of the few nations that possesses ICBM-armed nuclear ballistic missile submarines. In addition to its current four Type 094 subs armed with 12 JL-12 submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) each, a new “boomer” submarine is on the way. “China’s next-generation Type 096 SSBN, which will likely begin construction in the early-2020s, will reportedly carry a new type of SLBM,” the report predicts. “The PLAN is expected to operate the Type 094 and Type 096 SSBNs concurrently and could have up to eight SSBNs by 2030.”

Particularly interesting is China’s growing ability to launch land-attack cruise missiles, a capability that the U.S. Navy has demonstrated with its Tomahawk missiles on more than one occasion. This would allow Chinese surface ships and submarines to strike key bases, such as Guam, in the Pacific and beyond.

“In the coming years, the PLAN will probably field LACMs on its newer cruisers and destroyers and developmental Type 093B nuclear attack submarines,” the Pentagon report noted. “The PLAN could also retrofit its older surface combatants and submarines with land-attack capabilities as well. The addition of land-attack capabilities to the PLAN’s surface combatants and submarines would provide the PLA with flexible long-range strike options. This would allow the PRC to hold land targets at risk beyond the Indo-Pacific region.”

In 2019, China launched its first Yushen-class large amphibious assault ship, which is not good news for Taiwan. The PLAN is also building a variety of support vessels, including oilers, intelligence collection ships and even China’s first polar icebreaker.

Of course, there is a lot more to a navy’s power than the number of ships or missiles. The U.S. Navy has more than a century of reliably operating in distant waters, including carrier flight operations, convoying merchant shipping, and conducting amphibious operations. For all its growing technological sophistication, China’s navy simply lacks experience in these matters.

But eventually it will gain that experience. Coupled with a huge battlefleet and advanced weapons, China’s navy may prove to be formidable foe.

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